I only made today’s signal so could make a bad pun about “revealed preference”.
Now that’s off my conscience, let’s get to it.
I’m looking at Victoria’s Secret’s new admission it’s ditching “inclusivity” and “accessibility” in favour of a return to the brand’s original more aspirational sexy fantasy strategy - after giving women what they said they want (comfier bodied models and easier to wear underwear) instead of what they said they didn’t want (skimpy, fancy little numbers showcased on stick-thin yet busty supermodels) the brand’s share price deflated rather than inflated.
This is a great lesson for foresight, marketing and policy people : people lie. What we say we want and stand for isn’t necessarily what we do. Who we are is not who we’d like to see ourselves as being.
Revealed preference > stated preferance
Only a fool would make strategic plans based on stated preference.
It’s also a fantastic example of the difference between actual values and brand “values”. Values ain’t values unless they come at a price.
If Vicky’s Secret really valued female self esteem and body image - a sales decline would not deter them from their new nobel position. But it did, so they didn’t. Again, the revealed preference of the brand doesn’t match it’s stated lofty ideals.
Which other examples have you noticed where what the people / politicians / brands DO is different to what they SAY they want?
Good luck out there! And if you’re basing your forecasts, scenarios or marketing plans on survey data rather than sales data - just stop it.
(The Elephant in the Brain is a good starting point to understand this phenomenon)
Read more :
Sex appeal IS empowerment?? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2023/10/18/lingerie-victorias-secret-feminist-makeover-sexiness-sales/
Corporate political neutrality : https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-esg-profitable-the-numbers-dont-lie-benchmarks-analytics-politics-neutral-fiduciary-duty-market-woke-5da4a533
Elephants in your brains : https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/442912/our-motives-are-hidden-even-to-ourselves-and-they-are-not-pure
(Very) revealing preference