If we want to see the way the wind is blowing (as my good friend Tim Stock reminded me last night!) we need to look at the edges where new signals and stories are sprouting up in sub cultures to challenge dominant narratives.
We also need the wisdom to watch what people *do* and not just believe what they *say* (sometimes the stories are lies!) if we want to catch a glimpse of the future headed our way.
Today’s signal challenges a few close to home stories and hints at changing winds in the zeitgeist.
Talk to South Africans (especially affluent educated ones) and the obvious story is that everyone who’s anyone is leaving. That pessimism about South Africa’s future is the default setting. To suggest otherwise (as I do in my new book) is foolish to the point of being irresponsible. And yes, the dominant trend since the early naughties is indeed - emigration. Around 900,000 odd South Africans have left us.
And if you don’t have the right colour passport or the correct MBA, well, semigration to Cape Town is your logical alternative.
However, tax professionals ans realators are now drawing attention to a not insignificant counter trend accelerating on the margins - around 350,000 odd of those expats (economic migrants, let’s be honest) have returned to South Africa - and many are investing homes and households in *Johannesburg* of all places.
The facts don’t all fit the prevailing story neatly. Something is shifting - and something about the imperfect frontier that is South Africa in general and Johannesburg in particular is making people invest their revealed optimism (even if they say and feel differently) against common sense “wisdom of the crowds”.
Why do you think this counter trend is playing out? (I have some ideas, but I’m biased.)
Have you fallen into the “too big to fail” trap were you believe the dominant story is a permenant story? Have you failed to check your blind spots for signals of divergence?
Let me know.
Read more :
Where’d they go? https://www.statista.com/statistics/1238117/stock-of-emigrants-from-south-africa-by-country-of-destination/
Why’d they come back? https://www.enca.com/lifestyle-videos/watch-joburg-city-choice-returning-expats#:~:text=JOHANNESBURG%20%2D%20Johannesburg%20is%20becoming%20the,Western%20Cape%20is%20also%20reversing.
Early signals : https://www.sableinternational.com/blog/homeward-bound-why-south-african-expats-are-returning-home
Get yourself some foresight : https://fluxtrends.com/salon/practical-foresight-skills-for-everyone-workshop/
When even the brown grass is greener